A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
